Full Professor at the University of Minho, Ph.D. in Economics (Cornell University), MSc in Economics (University of Porto), and Licentiate in Economics (University of Coimbra).
In the past, he has been the director of the Economics Department and Vice-president for Internationalization and Research in the School of Economics and Management.
In 2011, he received the Gulbenkian Prize for Social Sciences Internationalization. In 2010 and 2013 he received the EEG/UMinho’s Prize for excellence in research He has received several grants from FCT. Currently, he has a 3-year grant about voting rules and electoral distortions – €95 000.
Macroeconomics
Portuguese Economy
Political Economy
Wavelet Analysis Carbon Markets
Selected publications
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Magalhães, P. C., & Vanberg, C. A. (2016). Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election boycotts. Experimental Economics, 19(4), 886–909. DOI
Alexandre, F., Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Bação, P. (2016). Crise e Castigo - Os desequilíbrios e o resgate da economia portuguesa. Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Soares, M. J. (2014). The continuous wavelet transform: Moving beyond uni- and bivariate analysis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 28(2), 344–375. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Magalhães, P. C., & Soares, M. J. (2012). Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time Series. American Journal of Political Science, 56(2), 500–518. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Wen, Y. (2007). Understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(4), 925–944. DOI
Other publications
Ojo, M. O., Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Soares, M. J. The performance of OECD's composite leading indicator. International Journal of Finance and Economics. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Fernandes, B., & Magalhães, P. (2023). The Economy and Executive Approval in a Semi-Presidential Regime. In T. Hellwig & M. Singer (Eds.), Economics and Politics Revisited: Executive Approval and the New Calculus of Support (pp. 108–130). Oxford University Press. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Martins, M. M. F., & Soares, M. J. (2023). The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 151(104620). DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Conceição, G., & Soares, M. J. (2022). How Far is Gas from becoming a Global Commodity? Energy Journal, 43(4), 179–198. DOI
Alexandre, J. C., & Aguiar-Conraria, L. (2021). Opinion expression on hazing: has the Spiral of Silence reached the Portuguese higher education? Journal of Further and Higher Education, 45(10), 1325–1341. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., & e Maria Joana Soares, M. M. F. M. (2020). A Lei de Okun sob novas lentes. In A. P. Duarte, M. Simões, P. Bação, & R. Martins (Eds.), Estudos de Homenagem a João Sousa Andrade (pp. 485–500). Almedina. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Magalhães, P. C., & Vanberg, C. A. (2020). What are the best quorum rules? A laboratory investigation. Public Choice, 185(1-2), 215–231. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Martins, M. M. F., & Soares, M. J. (2020). Okun's Law across time and frequencies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 116(103897). DOI
Ojo, M. O., Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Soares, M. J. (2020). A time–frequency analysis of the Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve. Empirical Economics, 58(5), 2333–2351. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Magalhães, P. C., & Veiga, F. J. (2019). Transparency, Policy Outcomes, and Incumbent Support. Kyklos, 72(3), 357–380. DOI
Alexandre, F., Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Bação, P. (2019). Crise e Castigo e o dia seguinte - Os desequilibrios, o resgate e a recuperação da economia portuguesa. Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos. DOI
Magalhães, P. C., & Aguiar-Conraria, L. (2019). Procedural Fairness, the Economy, and Support for Political Authorities. Political Psychology, 40(1), 165–181. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Martins, M. M. F., & Soares, M. J. (2018). Estimating the Taylor rule in the time-frequency domain. Journal of Macroeconomics, 57, 122–137. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Soares, M. J., & Sousa, R. (2018). California's carbon market and energy prices: A wavelet analysis. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376(2126). DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Brinca, P., Gujónsson, H. V., & Soares, M. J. (2017). Business cycle synchronization across U.S. states. B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 17(1). DOI
Alexandre, F., Aguiar-Conraria, L., Bação, P., & Portela, M. (2017). Poupança e Financiamento da Economia Portuguesa. Imprensa Nacional - Casa da Moeda . DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Magalhães, P. C., & Vanberg, C. A. (2016). Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election boycotts. Experimental Economics, 19(4), 886–909. DOI
Alexandre, F., Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Bação, P. (2016). Crise e Castigo - Os desequilíbrios e o resgate da economia portuguesa. Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Soares, M. J., & Magalhães, P. (2015). Application of Wavelets to the Study of Political History. In R. A. Meyers (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science (pp. 1–16). Springer. DOI
Sousa, R., & Aguiar-Conraria, L. (2015). Energy and carbon prices: A comparison of interactions in the European Union emissions trading scheme and the Western climate initiative market. Carbon Management, 6(3-4), 129–140. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Soares, M. J. (2014). The continuous wavelet transform: Moving beyond uni- and bivariate analysis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 28(2), 344–375. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Rodrigues, T. M., & Soares, M. J. (2014). Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area. In M. Gallegati & W. Semmler (Eds.), Wavelet Applications in Economics and Finance, Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, 20 (pp. 143–156). Springer International Publishing. DOI
Sousa, R., Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Soares, M. J. (2014). Carbon financial markets: A time-frequency analysis of CO 2 prices. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 414, 118–127. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Magalhães, P. C., & Soares, M. J. (2013). The nationalization of electoral cycles in the United States: A wavelet analysis. Public Choice, 156(3-4), 387–408. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Martins, M. M. F., & Soares, M. J. (2013). Convergence of the Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Eurozone: A Time-Frequency Analysis. Journal of Common Market Studies, 51(3), 377–398. DOI
Aguiar, S., Aguiar-Conraria, L., Gulamhussen, M. A., & Magalhães, P. C. (2012). Foreign direct investment and home-country political risk: The case of Brazil. Latin American Research Review, 47(2), 144–165. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Wen, Y. (2012). OPEC's oil exporting strategy and macroeconomic (in)stability. Energy Economics, 34(1), 132–136. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Alexandre, F., & de Pinho, M. C. (2012). The euro and the growth of the Portuguese economy:a counterfactual analysis. Análise Social, 47(2), 298–321. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Magalhães, P. C., & Soares, M. J. (2012). Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time Series. American Journal of Political Science, 56(2), 500–518. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Martins, M. M. F., & Soares, M. J. (2012). The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36(12), 1950–1970. DOI
Magalhães, P. C., Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2012). Forecasting Spanish elections. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 769–776. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Soares, M. J. (2011). Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis. Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(3), 477–489. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Soares, M. J. (2011). Oil and the macroeconomy: Using wavelets to analyze old issues. Empirical Economics, 40(3), 645–655. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Magalhães, P. C. (2010). How quorum rules distort referendum outcomes: Evidence from a pivotal voter model. European Journal of Political Economy, 26(4), 541–557. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Magalhães, P. C. (2010). Referendum design, quorum rules and turnout. Public Choice, 144(1), 63–81. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L. (2009). Challenges Ahead for the Portuguese Economy. South European Society and Politics, 14(2), 239–240. DOI
Magalhães, P. C., & Aguiar-Conraria, L. (2009). Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese general elections. Electoral Studies, 28(2), 314–321. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L. (2008). A note on the stability properties of goodwin's predator-prey model. Review of Radical Political Economics, 40(4), 518–523. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Wen, Y. (2008). A note on oil dependence and economic instability. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 12(5), 717–723. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., Azevedo, N., & Soares, M. J. (2008). Using wavelets to decompose the time-frequency effects of monetary policy. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 387(12), 2863–2878. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Wen, Y. (2007). Understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(4), 925–944. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Shell, K. (2006). Capital Gains. International Journal of Economic Theory, 2(3-4), 331–349. DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Shell, K. (2006). Capital gains: Blue machines and red machines. Singapore Economic Review, 50(SPEC. ISS. 1), 437–447. DOI
Conraria, L. A. (2005). Public vs. Private schooling in na endogenous growth model. Economics Bulletin, 9(10), 1–6. DOI
Banking and Financial Economics
Bachelor
International Monetary and Financial Economics
Master
International Monetary Economics
Bachelor
Wavelets and Filters in Economics
Doctorate
Macroeconomics I
Bachelor
Research Methodology and Proposal in Economics
Master
Principles of Macroeconomics
Bachelor
